You'll be back!

One of the most exciting times of the Eurovision year is the beginning of December when the EBU is desperately attempting to get as many possible participants together for the following year's contest. Sometimes they have a good year (and decide that Georgia's disqualification is appropriate) and sometimes not so good (where cheeky Azerbaijan stay in, despite continued rule-breaking). Heres who I think will be in next year:-

Guaranteed
These countries have already confirmed their appearance in Berlin/Hamburg/Hanover/Munich/Bremen/Dusseldorf/Cologne etc etc.

Germany (obvs.)
Denmark (Once again, not far for them to travel)
Belgium (Different broadcaster though. I smell another semi final defeat!)
United Kingdom (The only thing Eurovision related that the BBC seem forthcoming about)
Cyprus (Buoyed by a better result this year, no doubt)
Netherlands (Gluttons for punishment)
Ukraine (Something fun next year please Ukraine!)
Sweden (Someone will be looking shamefaced at the EBU HOD's meeting Christer)
Finland (They're used to failure generally at ESC, they'll be FINE!)
Romania (Eager to do as well as they did this year)
Spain (Putting gatecrash-gate behind them)
Malta (My guess: Chiara)
Azerbaijan (Of course you're back Azerbaijan - how much will it cost next year?)
Estonia (Surprisingly keen, normally participation requires some sort of national discussion)
Greece (Well, it's good to be optimistic Greece)
Turkey (I'm sure it's Dum Tek-Shake it up Shekerim-Superstar-Everyway that I can's turn next year again).

Probables
These countries are more than likely to be in Berlin/Hamburg/Hanover/Munich/Bremen/Dusseldorf/Cologne etc etc.

Armenia (If Azerbaijan are there, Armenia will be too)
France (Big 4 solidarity)
Georgia (Surely will be back after a best ever placing in Oslo)
Russia (Guaranteed at least 11th place whatever they enter)
Portugal (3 qualifications in a row - Portugal's best Eurovision run ever!)
Norway (I can't imagine they'll be keen to win quite so soon. My guess: Jahn Teigen)
Bosnia Herzegovina (They love the final)
Croatia (They used to love the final)
FYR Macedonia (They can't remember the final)
Slovenia (Final? Sorry?)
Israel (Something upbeat please Israel. And no, we don't want Teapacks again)
Moldova (Oh joy)
Iceland (I'd start weeping if they weren't)
Albania (Starting their National Final any day now . . . )
Belarus (Inflicting their best Home Counties accent on Europe since 2004)
Serbia (My guess: Zeljko)

Maybes
These countries are maybe going to be in Berlin/Hamburg/Hanover/Munich/Bremen/Dusseldorf/Cologne:-

Latvia (Bad economy, and have been dead last in 2 semi finals 2 years running - what further incentive do they need to stay home?)
Slovakia (Put in a lot of effort this year to no reward. In fact just Latvia saved them from being last)
Ireland ("We couldn't have done much more" according to AKOE and Louis Walsh wants Jedward. Maybe it's best you stay home Ireland)
Lithuania (Very close to staying home in 2010, will they be in any of the above German cities come May next year?)

Please stay!
I fear the EBU are gonna be begging these countries to stay and participate in Berlin/Hamburg/Hanover/Munich/Bremen/Dusseldorf/Cologne 2010

Bulgaria (Haven't exactly set the Eurovision world alight. 3rd Semi Final defeat in a row. Does anyone watch Eurovision in Bulgaria?)
Poland (We've been hearing rumours that they've been leaving since 2001, another semi defeat has probably pushed them over the edge)
Switzerland (Keep entering quite good songs and getting hated on by Europe. My guess: Celine. Not really)

Returnees
These countries may or may not return to Berlin/Hamb . . . blah blah blah etc etc

Montenegro
Reason for leaving: "To consolidate financial status after 3 years as an independent state".

Will they be back? That sounds like leaving was only a one year thing until they got themselves sorted. Then again, they weren't exactly tripping over themselves with douze points when they were part of Eurovision.

Austria
Reason for leaving: Initially it seemed to be because of political voting (which Austria was as guilty as anyone else for - "And 12 points go to Serbia", "Serbia Montenegro 12 points" etc) but after Norway's win proved to many Western European nations that they could win again, Austria claimed Eurovision had been ruined by the regulations".

Will they be back? Well, I never thought as Austria as a regulation dodger and I'm not really sure if that's been dealt with. If their closest political ally can win Eurovision, a country that they share a language and so much history with then this is their big chance to return. ORF seem really difficult about Eurovision so I have a feeling it won't be as easy as it seems ("We don't want to be in semi final 1", "We don't want to be in a semi final with Poland", "Munich's closer for us!") but we'll see. Even though most Eurovision fans haven't been blown away by their most recent entries, it would be nice to see the return of a previous winner and old school Eurovision country.

Czech Republic
Reason for leaving: No-one seemed to know or care that Eurovision existed in the Czech Republic, just as everyone seemed to become aware of it's existence in Slovakia.

Will they be back? I really can't see them returning unless "Satellite" is a bit hit in the country whereby there might be a Czech Eurovision epiphany. Unlikely.

Hungary
Reason for leaving: Hungary has always had an erratic relationship with Eurovision. I think 2009 was about the third final straw of MTV (Hungary's national broadcaster).

Will they be back? I think it's looking likely! Duma TV (Another Hungarian Broadcaster) seem keen and are already requesting selection tips. Let's hope the Czech broadcaster doesn't hear about this or else we may lose Hungary before they've even came back. Surely a record, even for Hungary.

San Marino
Reason for leaving? Money? Lack of possible artistic talent? Bad result?

Will they be back? I'm guessing this will be down to finance. It would be nice to see them back (I enjoyed their sole entry in 2008) but I imagine there will be a lot of persuasion involved.

Monaco
Reason for leaving? Money? Lack of possible artistic talent? Bad results?

Will they be back? I was always so surprised that Monaco returned, that I wasn't expecting them to drop out just as suddenly. They've now been out of the Eurovision loop for longer than they returned for. I imagine, like San Marino a lot of persuasion would be needed.

Andorra
Reason for leaving? Financial problems, continued semi final failures.

Will they be back? They've already suggested otherwise but I'm not so sure. They were very close to staying in 2010 and even turned down Justin Lee Collins' proposal to fund they entire participation. I would imagine though that there are plenty of super wealthy folk in Andorra who could fund a participation. I'd like to see them back. You were missed this year Andorra!

Luxembourg
Reason for leaving? Anger at relegation in 1994.

Will they be back? RTL (Luxembourg broadcaster) have been giving mixed signals as to whether they will return. In 2005 they claimed that "Luxembourg would never return to Eurovision" but then in 2009 were attempting to secure funding for the 2010 contest. With the lack of a music scene and I'm guessing quite an apathetic population, it'll be tricky but it would be great to see a country that had won on five occasions return.

Italy
Reason for leaving? Lack of interest amongst Italians

Will they be back? The EBU have apparently been trying really hard to convince Italy to return (doing well aren't they?) but obviously to no avail. Again, the fact that Germany has just won (and had a very successful national final) may convince RAI that Eurovision could have a future in Italy. I feel it will take a considerable amount of work to bring Italy back though.

Debutant's
These countries may appear at their first contest in Berlin/Hamburg/Hanover/Munich/Dusseldorf/Cologne.Bremen

Liechtenstein
They seem keen, but still have to secure EBU membership. Hopefully the summer will bring the news thet're looking for. I imagine we'll see them soon in the Eurovision future, but it's probably a bit early to say whether it'll be in Germany.

Kosovo
Have applied for EBU membership but have yet to fulfil some of the criteria. Considering half the continent doesn't even acknowledge Kosovo's independence, their participation should be fun!

Palestine
Seemed keen a few years ago (possibly just to piss Israel off) but haven't been granted full EBU membership as of yet.

Qatar
Always desperate to get their name out worldwide, they were eager to enter Eurovision 2009 but were unable to fast track full EBU membership in time. However very little was said about them appearing in Oslo. With the voracity that they attempted to bring the 2016 Olympics to Doha, I get the impression that if they set their mind to entering Eurovision in 2011, they will succeed with their goal.

I think it's very unlikely that we'll get all 51 of these countries in Berlin. Could you imagine a contest with 51 countries? Semi-Finals with 24 countries! Madness. However, I do definitely think we'll see a higher number than in Oslo and maybe even a highest ever participant number. Which would be great.

Seanster.

Hiyaz.

Another Eurovision is over (sad!) and we have oh so long to wait until the next one (super sad!). Thankfully, because this year's contest was so late - Jerusalem '99 late (!) thanks Svante - we only have 51 weeks to wait until we're being welcomed with open arms zu Deutschland and I, for one think that's a good reason to feel positive. This blog will (you know, when I was at school teachers always used to say never write "This essay will . . . " in an essay, but frankly I am throwing caution to the wind) hopefully provide a little Eurovision banter and irreverence (in a good way!) in the desolate Off Season™ .

Danke schon and bon nuit.
Seanster.